Brazil heads back to the future as Flavio Bolsonaro refuses to recognize Lula win

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Photo: Getty Images

By Oliver Griffin and Luciana Magalhaes Reuters | Posted by TOE

Brazilian right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has followed his imprisoned father’s lead by refusing to concede defeat to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who won a historic fourth term in Sunday’s presidential election.

Bolsonaro, the son of ‌former President Jair Bolsonaro, called into question a late-Sunday decision by a Lula-appointed Supreme Court justice that extended voting by two hours over alleged ‌voter transport irregularities. He said he would ask for the result to be annulled.

“It is impossible to recognize the election results, given the circumstances under which things unfolded,” Bolsonaro told journalists.

While the lawmaker moved to ​contest the result, world leaders rapidly rallied behind Lula’s victory, with congratulations pouring in from the EU, Mexico, France, Canada, India and Russia. The Trump administration remained silent, however.

Investors reacted nervously, sending Brazilian assets sharply lower as markets reassessed the country’s fiscal outlook under Lula.

The scale of Bolsonaro’s loss, with the senator trailing Lula by over 4 million votes, makes it unlikely his efforts to annul the vote will succeed, analysts said.

His petition is also undermined by the fact that his campaign also sought a voting extension due to ‌heavy rains in the conservative-leaning south.

Still, Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede ⁠could spark a wave of protests in a country where faith in the electoral system, and in judicial independence, has been strained in recent years, observers say.

Jair Bolsonaro plunged Brazil into a deep democratic crisis after the election in 2022, when his supporters stormed ⁠government buildings in protest against the result. He later received a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup.

GLOBAL LEADERS CONGRATULATE LULA

As Bolsonaro challenged the result at home, foreign leaders were quick to recognize Lula’s victory.

French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Brazil had “much to build together,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil.”

The Kremlin welcomed ​Lula’s ​re-election and praised him for his contribution to bilateral ties and to BRICS. Ukrainian President Volodymyr ​Zelenskiy congratulated the leftist leader on “remarkable election results” and said he ‌looked forward to expanding cooperation.

Notable absences were the White House and the US State Department, which did not immediately comment, and Argentine President Javier Milei.

The result is set to disappoint the administration of US President Donald Trump, whose State Department led a campaign to return the Bolsonaros to power.

LULA DEFIES EXPECTATIONS

Lula’s victory defied polls, precedent and global anti-incumbent sentiment to put the brakes on a wave of right-wing election victories across Latin America. He trailed Bolsonaro in the first round, but managed to convince voters to come out for him in the runoff.

Financial markets expressed initial concerns at the shock result, as investors reversed positions that had largely been built around expectations of a Bolsonaro ‌victory.

November futures for the Brazilian real fell more than 10%, while the iShares MSCI Brazil exchange-traded ​fund dropped 26% in premarket trading. Some long-dated Brazilian sovereign bonds lost more than 2 cents on ​the dollar.

“The initial sell-off could moderate as election-related positions are unwound, but ​investors will demand convincing fiscal commitments before rebuilding exposure,” said Pantheon Macroeconomics’ chief Latin America economist, Andres Abadia.

Speaking at a hotel in ‌Sao Paulo late on Sunday, Lula took a conciliatory tone.

“I won’t ​speak of national unity, because that doesn’t always ​fit the reality of this country. No one is obliged to like the elected president, but he was put in place to govern for everyone,” Lula said.

‘COUNTLESS’ CHALLENGES

During the campaign, Lula pointed to his track record of cutting poverty and inequality while also highlighting record low unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation, but ​his fourth term may prove challenging.

He will have to work alongside ‌a Congress packed full of Bolsonaro allies after a surge of right-wing voting recast Brazil’s legislature in favor of the president’s enemies.

“The challenges are ​countless,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper in São Paulo.

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