By Roba EL HUSSEINI AFP

Iraqis elect a new parliament on Tuesday in a vote that comes at a pivotal time for the country and the wider region, and which both Iran and the United States will be closely watching.

Iraq has been unusually stable in recent years, as the nation tries to move past decades of war and repression under slain dictator Saddam Hussein and since the US-led invasion that toppled him.

But even now, the country of 46 million people suffers from poor infrastructure, failing public services and endemic corruption.

Many have lost hope that elections can bring meaningful change to their daily lives and see the vote as a sham that only benefits political elites and regional powers.

Polling stations will open at 7:00 am local time (0400 GMT) and close at 6:00 pm (1500 GMT).

Despite the scepticism, more than 7,740 candidates, nearly a third of them women, are running for the 329-seat parliament.

Only 75 independents are running under an electoral law that many believe favours larger parties.

More than 21 million people are eligible to vote, but there are fears turnout could drop below the 41 percent registered in 2021 — the lowest since voting began.

“Every four years, the same thing happens. We don’t see young faces or new energies” capable of “making a change,” said university student Al-Hassan Yassin.

– Sectarian politics –

Over the years since US-led forces ousted Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, Iraq’s long-oppressed Shiite majority still dominates, with most parties retaining ties to neighbouring Iran.

By convention in post-invasion Iraq, a Shiite Muslim holds the powerful post of prime minister and a Sunni that of parliament speaker, while the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.

No new names have recently emerged, with the same Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish politicians remaining at the forefront.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who hopes for a second term after serving under the banner of stability and reconstruction, is likely to score a significant win.

Sudani rose to power in 2022 by the Coordination Framework, a ruling alliance of Shiite parties and factions all linked to Iran.

He has highlighted his success in keeping Iraq relatively unscathed by the turmoil engulfing the Middle East.

But securing a big bloc does not guarantee him a second term: the next prime minister will be voted in by whichever coalition can secure enough allies to become the largest bloc.

Although they run separately, Shiite parties within the Coordination Framework are expected to reunite after elections and pick the next premier.

– Where’s Sadr? –

The ballot is marked by the absence of influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, who urged his followers to boycott what he called a “flawed election”.

In 2021, Sadr secured the largest bloc before withdrawing from parliament following a dispute with Shiite parties that did not support his bid to form a government, and instead came together to form a larger alliance.

The rift culminated in deadly fighting in the capital, Baghdad.

Sunni parties are running separately with the former speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi expected to do well.

In the autonomous Kurdistan region, the rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan remains fierce.

Iraq, which has long been a fertile land for proxy wars, is a close ally of Iran and the United States.

It has long sought to maintain a balance between the two foes, and even more so now that the Middle East is undergoing an avalanche of change, with new alliances forming and old powers weakening.

Even as its influence wanes, Iran hopes to preserve its power in Iraq — the only close ally that stayed out of Israel’s crosshairs after the heavy losses its other allies have incurred in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza since 2023.

Early last year, pro-Iran factions listed as terrorist groups by Washington yielded to internal and US pressure and stopped targeting American forces in Iraq after months of attacks over the Gaza war.

Iraq has been under pressure from the United States to disarm the pro-Iran groups.

The US, which holds much sway in Iraq and has forces deployed there, has recently appointed Mark Savaya as its special envoy.

Savaya has called to free Iraq from Iran and its proxies’ interference, which he described as “malign”.